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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Incheon United to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Incheon United — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Incheon United haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Incheon United's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) versus 1.10 (Incheon United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 3 for Incheon United and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Incheon United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Statistics

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's full-season record stands at 18W 7D 13L from 38 games. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 6-2 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 10 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 38 games (26%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards per game.

In-Play Data

Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Incheon United trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% | Incheon United 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Incheon United 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.936 / defence 1.143 | Incheon United attack 0.911 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.310. Data: 45 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 12 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 41%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Incheon United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Incheon United 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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