Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Gwangju FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at Gimcheon Stadium this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gwangju FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 2 for Gwangju FC and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% versus Gwangju FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% | Gwangju FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.36 xG and Gwangju FC 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.863 / defence 0.873 | Gwangju FC attack 0.666 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.319. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Gimcheon Sangmu FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 59 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.08 | Draw 2.86 | Gwangju FC 5.56. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Gwangju FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.36 / Gwangju FC 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.863 / def 0.873 | Gwangju FC attack 0.666 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Gwangju FC xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 2 Gwangju FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 48% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (8 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W | Draws 4 | Gwangju FC 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.86) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
48%
2.10
35%
2.86
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.13
0.77
Gwangju FC xG
2.10
48%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
22.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.77 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 64 games, going 22W 22D 20L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.03 PPG from 64 outings (16W 18D 30L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.38 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 11W 10D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (7W 10D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 0.88 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 64 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 22W 22D 20L in their last 64 games (1.38 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 18D 30L in their last 64 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.39 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
5
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gwangju FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Gwangju FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 42% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Gwangju FC in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 36% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 42% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.36 xG and Gwangju FC 0.77 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Gwangju FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.35, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 18%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, Gwangju FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.38 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.