Gangwon FC 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 May 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 0.96 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.942 / defence 1.009 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.678 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 1.054. Data: 14 Gangwon FC games / 13 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ulsan Hyundai FC's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Gangwon FC 0.96 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.942 / def 1.009 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.678 / def 1.070 | league avg home 0.953 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 38% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 25% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
38%
2.63
37%
2.67
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
1.68
0.72
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.72 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 2-2 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 0.96 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.72 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.07, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.