Gangwon FC 0-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC meet at Gangneung Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gangwon FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gangwon FC at Gangneung Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Gangneung Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gangwon FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Suwon City FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 45% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.16 xG and Suwon City FC 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.075 / defence 0.880 | Suwon City FC attack 0.809 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 0.892. Data: 37 Gangwon FC games / 37 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 48% | Draw 31% | Suwon City FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Suwon City FC 5.00. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Suwon City FC's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. This conflicts with form data: Gangwon FC 60% | Suwon City FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 48% | Draw 31% | Suwon City FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 32% | xG Gangwon FC 1.16 / Suwon City FC 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.075 / def 0.880 | Suwon City FC attack 0.809 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.062 / away 0.892 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Suwon City FC xG
32%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 48% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.07) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.81x) against Gangwon FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
48%
2.06
31%
3.19
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
1.79
0.64
Suwon City FC xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.64 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 13D 14L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (14W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.34 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 8W 8D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
3
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 47%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gangwon FC) and 58% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 58% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gangwon FC 0-2 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.16 xG and Suwon City FC 0.64 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Suwon City FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 48% | Draw 31% | Suwon City FC 20%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 45%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.