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Dominant Gimcheon Sangmu FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Gangwon FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gangwon FC 0-4 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.82 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 36% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 58%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.68 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights