Gangwon FC 2-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gangneung Stadium plays host to Gangwon FC versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 22 June 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gangwon FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gangwon FC at Gangneung Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Gangwon FC's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gangwon FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gangwon FC 0W, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gangwon FC 22% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.78 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.320 / defence 1.120 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.813 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.141. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Gangwon FC games / 17 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 55% | Draw 23% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Gangwon FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 80% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jun 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 55% | Draw 23% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Gangwon FC 1.78 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.320 / def 1.120 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.813 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 June 2024 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 55% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gangwon FC 0W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.32) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.81x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 50/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.29
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.04
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.04 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 40 games, going 7W 17D 16L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 0.95 PPG from 40 outings (8W 14D 18L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Gangwon FC against 0.95 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 4W 8D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (3W 9D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60%.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 7W 17D 16L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gangwon FC
1
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Gangwon FC, 65% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Gangwon FC) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Gangwon FC's games and 65% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gangwon FC 2-3 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.78 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.32 / defence 1.12 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 55% | Draw 23% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 22%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 0.95 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.