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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Pohang Steelers 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC beat Pohang Steelers 2-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.67 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.42 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 44% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 33%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 41%, Pohang Steelers 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.34 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights