Gangwon FC 4-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Gangwon FC welcome Jeju United FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 June 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gangwon FC at Gangneung Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Gangneung Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.30 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 45% | Jeju United FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 0.94 xG and Jeju United FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.930 / defence 1.051 | Jeju United FC attack 1.120 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.098. Data: 50 Gangwon FC games / 50 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 27% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 2.22. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 60% | Jeju United FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 27% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Gangwon FC 0.94 / Jeju United FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.930 / def 1.051 | Jeju United FC attack 1.120 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Jeju United FC xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC 4 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 27% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
27%
3.73
29%
3.50
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.23
1.29
Jeju United FC xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.9 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.29 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 13D 14L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.37 PPG from 38 outings (12W 16D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.21 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gangwon FC's home form reads 8W 8D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (5W 9D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gangwon FC
7
Draws
0
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 47%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gangwon FC) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 37%; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Jeju United FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Jeju United FC 4-2 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 0.94 xG and Jeju United FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Jeju United FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 27% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 45%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 45%, Jeju United FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.