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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Gwangju FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC beat Gwangju FC 1-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.09 xG and Gwangju FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Gwangju FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 30% | Gwangju FC 32%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 41%, Gwangju FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.34 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights