🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out FC Seoul 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC beat FC Seoul 3-2 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.25 xG and FC Seoul 1.22 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against FC Seoul attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 37% | Draw 27% | FC Seoul 36%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 52%, FC Seoul 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

FC Seoul's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.55 PPG, FC Seoul 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights