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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Seoul defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Gangwon FC 0-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.14 xG and FC Seoul 0.77 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against FC Seoul attack 0.75 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 44% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 25%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a FC Seoul win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 41%, FC Seoul 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.34 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights