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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 2-2 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.15 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.62 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 26% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 47%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 54%, Daejeon Citizen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.56 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights