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Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Daegu FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC beat Daegu FC 3-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.22 xG and Daegu FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.26 against Daegu FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.45, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 31% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 41%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 40%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.31 PPG, Daegu FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights