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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.63 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 46% | Draw 24% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 29%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.48 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights