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Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 40% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 41%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.52 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights