🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Seoul.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat FC Seoul 1-3 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Championship Group - 37, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.75 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.42 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 45% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 46%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.45 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights