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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat FC Seoul 1-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.51 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.06 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pohang Steelers outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 47% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 26%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 44%, Pohang Steelers 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (70 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (70 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.47 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights