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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Seoul run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pohang Steelers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Pohang Steelers 4-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.16 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.47 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 29% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 43%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 49%, Pohang Steelers 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.49 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights