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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.36 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.66 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.19 / defence 1.07 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.29 / defence 0.80, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 31% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 46%, Jeonbuk Motors 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.49 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights