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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out FC Seoul 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat FC Seoul 0-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.10 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.13 / defence 0.78, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 31% | Draw 27% | Jeonbuk Motors 42%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 49%, Jeonbuk Motors 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.49 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights