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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Seoul.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 1-3 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.21 xG and Jeju United FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Jeju United FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 42% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 29%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 49%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.49 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights