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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat FC Seoul 1-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.38 xG and Gwangju FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against Gwangju FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 47% | Draw 27% | Gwangju FC 25%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 49%, Gwangju FC 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.49 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights