🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Gangwon FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Gangwon FC 4-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Championship Group - 34, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.34 xG and Gangwon FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against Gangwon FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.82, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 41% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 30%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 45%, Gangwon FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.45 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights