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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang beat FC Seoul 1-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.72 xG and FC Anyang 1.12 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.10 / defence 1.10 against FC Anyang attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 52% | Draw 24% | FC Anyang 25%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 41%, FC Anyang 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Anyang's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.48 PPG, FC Anyang 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights