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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Seoul and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as FC Seoul and Daejeon Citizen drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.33 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.67 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.60 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 31% | Draw 24% | Daejeon Citizen 45%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 49%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.49 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights