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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Seoul and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as FC Seoul and Daegu FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 2.11 xG and Daegu FC 1.01 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Daegu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.49, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 63% | Draw 20% | Daegu FC 17%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 40%, Daegu FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Seoul's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Daegu FC's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Seoul arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights