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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Anyang run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gimcheon Sangmu FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.22 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 32% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 53%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Anyang's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with FC Anyang winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights