FC Anyang 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 08:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Anyang have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Anyang at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for FC Anyang against 1.60 for Jeonbuk Motors. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FC Anyang's last 10 home games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 away games) — FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jeonbuk Motors in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have the stronger record — 4 wins to FC Anyang's 0, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2026, ended FC Anyang 1–2 Jeonbuk Motors — a Jeonbuk Motors win.
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Jeonbuk Motors 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | Jeonbuk Motors 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Anyang surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Jeonbuk Motors have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 0.72 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.919 / defence 0.904 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.851 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 1.304. Jeonbuk Motors bring a tight defence (rating 0.785, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Anyang's projected output down. Data: built from FC Anyang's last 45 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 45.
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 24% | Draw 36% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 4.16 | Draw 2.74 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — FC Anyang's lower xG of 0.72 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Jeonbuk Motors 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC Anyang 60% (last 10 home games) | Jeonbuk Motors 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 08:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 24% | Draw 36% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG FC Anyang 0.72 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.919 / def 0.904 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.851 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.003 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Jeonbuk Motors xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors FAQs
What time does FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 08:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
FC Anyang 1 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 24% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Anyang's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.85x) against FC Anyang's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from FC Anyang's last 45 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
24%
4.16
36%
2.74
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
1.73
1.00
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.16
24%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 17.9 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.00 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, FC Anyang have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 14W 7D 17L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 23W 10D 5L from 38 games, 2.08 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Anyang.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Anyang have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 18 home games (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 11W 5D 2L from their last 18 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Anyang are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.68 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
FC Anyang (Home) vs Jeonbuk Motors (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Anyang
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors Form FAQs
What form are FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 23W 10D 5L in their last 38 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.56 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 2.11 PPG.
Have FC Anyang or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Anyang have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2025 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Anyang
2
Draws
4
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Anyang have won 0, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: FC Anyang 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 56%, Jeonbuk Motors 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Anyang) and 39% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 56%; FC Anyang have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 39% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Anyang's recent games and 39% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 50% of Jeonbuk Motors's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang and Jeonbuk Motors finished level at 1-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 0.72 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.00 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.85 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 24% | Draw 36% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 55%, Jeonbuk Motors 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.