FC Anyang 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Anyang face Jeju United FC.

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Fixture Analysis

FC Anyang welcome Jeju United FC to Anyang Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, FC Anyang have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, FC Anyang have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Jeju United FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jeju United FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Anyang 1.60 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for FC Anyang, 1 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended FC Anyang 2–1 Jeju United FC — a FC Anyang win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Jeju United FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | Jeju United FC 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.62 xG and Jeju United FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.068 / defence 0.971 | Jeju United FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.304. Data: built from FC Anyang's last 34 games and Jeju United FC's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 44% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.29 | Draw 3.17 | Jeju United FC 4.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Anyang 60% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (FC Anyang 34 games, Jeju United FC 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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