FC Anyang 2-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Incheon United travel to Anyang Stadium to take on FC Anyang. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 August 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Anyang Stadium, FC Anyang have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Anyang Stadium this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Anyang at 1.30 PPG versus Incheon United's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Anyang have won 1, Incheon United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 1–0 with FC Anyang winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC Anyang trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Incheon United trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Anyang 70% and Incheon United 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 48% | Incheon United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.15 xG and Incheon United 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.974 / defence 1.483 | Incheon United attack 1.012 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.313. Data: 57 FC Anyang games / 23 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 20% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Incheon United 1.85. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 80% | Incheon United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 20% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Anyang 1.15 / Incheon United 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.974 / def 1.483 | Incheon United attack 1.012 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Incheon United xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Incheon United kick off?
FC Anyang vs Incheon United kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
FC Anyang 2 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is FC Anyang vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Incheon United part of?
FC Anyang vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 20% chance of winning, Incheon United a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Anyang and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Incheon United?
Record (2 meetings): FC Anyang 1W | Draws 0 | Incheon United 1W.
What form are FC Anyang and Incheon United in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Incheon United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 0.97x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
20%
5.07
26%
3.83
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
3.12
1.97
Incheon United xG
5.07
20%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
14%
7.18
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
3%
36.42
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.97 for Incheon United, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Anyang's recent record stands at 7W 8D 8L from 23 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Incheon United, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 8L across 23 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Anyang on 1.26 PPG, Incheon United on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Anyang have managed 1W 5D 5L from 11 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.26 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Incheon United's away record stands at 5W 4D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Incheon United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Anyang are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.30 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Blended
Incheon United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Incheon United in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 games (1.26 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Incheon United away?
Incheon United's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 0.73 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.73 PPG.
Have FC Anyang or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Anyang have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Incheon United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Anyang have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
FC Anyang's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
0
Draws
1
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Incheon United?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Incheon United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when FC Anyang 2-1 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Incheon United?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 73%, Incheon United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Anyang) and 54% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 36%; FC Anyang have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FC Anyang's games and 54% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Anyang vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Anyang's recent games and 54% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Incheon United tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Incheon United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Incheon United 2-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.15 xG and Incheon United 1.97 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Incheon United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.97 / defence 1.48 against Incheon United attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 20% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 54%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 48%, Incheon United 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.26 PPG, Incheon United 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.