FC Anyang 0-3 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Anyang and Gangwon FC meet at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
FC Anyang (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Anyang at Anyang Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gangwon FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, FC Anyang are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Anyang winning.
The historical record gives FC Anyang a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Anyang — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 67% versus Gangwon FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 52% | Gangwon FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.12 xG and Gangwon FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.010 / defence 1.378 | Gangwon FC attack 0.835 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.319. Data: 59 FC Anyang games / 58 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 25% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Gangwon FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 80% | Gangwon FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 25% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Anyang 1.12 / Gangwon FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 1.010 / def 1.378 | Gangwon FC attack 0.835 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Gangwon FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
FC Anyang 0 - 3 Gangwon FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 25% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Anyang and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gangwon FC?
Record (5 meetings): FC Anyang 3W | Draws 2 | Gangwon FC 0W.
What form are FC Anyang and Gangwon FC in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 1.01x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.83x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
25%
4.05
32%
3.09
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.64
1.52
Gangwon FC xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
5%
18.48
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.52 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Anyang's recent record stands at 21W 17D 25L from 63 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gangwon FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 23D 18L across 63 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for FC Anyang against 1.41 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Anyang have managed 11W 9D 12L from 32 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gangwon FC's away record stands at 12W 9D 11L across 32 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Anyang are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gangwon FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 22W 23D 18L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gangwon FC's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.31 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have FC Anyang or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Anyang have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gangwon FC won 0-3 on 6 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Anyang
2
Draws
1
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gangwon FC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when FC Anyang 0-3 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Gangwon FC?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 66%, Gangwon FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Anyang) and 38% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 41%; FC Anyang have failed to score in 28% of games; Gangwon FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 38% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Anyang's recent games and 38% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Anyang.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat FC Anyang 0-3 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.12 xG and Gangwon FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.01 / defence 1.38 against Gangwon FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 25% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 43%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 52%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.27 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.