🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Anyang cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gangwon FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang beat Gangwon FC 2-0 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 0.78 xG and Gangwon FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against Gangwon FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 6/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 23% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 47%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights