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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Daejeon Citizen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang beat Daejeon Citizen 3-2 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.34 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 35% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 39%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 54%, Daejeon Citizen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Anyang's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with FC Anyang winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights