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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 1-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.23 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.75 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.29 / defence 1.11, drawn from 17/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 27% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 50%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights