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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC Anyang welcome Daegu FC to Anyang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Daegu FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Anyang, 0 for Daegu FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Anyang winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.67 xG and Daegu FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.019 / defence 1.169 | Daegu FC attack 0.954 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.010. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing FC Anyang's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 FC Anyang games / 45 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 50% | Draw 24% | Daegu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Daegu FC 3.85. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

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