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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Suwon City FC 3-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.06 xG and Suwon City FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Suwon City FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 29% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 44%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 47%, Suwon City FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.40 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights