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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.12 xG and Suwon City FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Suwon City FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 36% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 36%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Suwon City FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights