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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.07 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 32% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 48%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.38 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights