🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pohang Steelers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Pohang Steelers 2-0 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Championship Group - 34, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.35 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 41% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 30%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Pohang Steelers 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.45 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights