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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Daejeon Citizen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Daejeon Citizen 1-3 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.11 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.13 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pohang Steelers outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.16 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 35% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 36%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Pohang Steelers 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights