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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeju United FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Jeju United FC 3-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.47 xG and Jeju United FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Jeju United FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 47% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 25%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.43 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights