🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC finished level at 1-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.04 xG and Jeju United FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.83 / defence 0.90 against Jeju United FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 35% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 32%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights