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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.96 xG and Gwangju FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Gwangju FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 32% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 36%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Gwangju FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights