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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Daejeon Citizen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.17 xG and Gangwon FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Gangwon FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 41% | Draw 37% | Gangwon FC 23%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 50%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.49 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights