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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Gangwon FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Gangwon FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 33% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 36%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Gangwon FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights