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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Seoul.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat FC Seoul 3-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Championship Group - 35, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.68 xG and FC Seoul 1.25 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against FC Seoul attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 47% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 28%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, FC Seoul 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC Seoul's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.47 PPG, FC Seoul 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights