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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Daejeon Citizen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.86 xG and FC Seoul 1.04 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daejeon Citizen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.78 / defence 0.88 against FC Seoul attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 29% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 38%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 48%, FC Seoul 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Seoul's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.43 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights