Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daejeon World Cup Stadium plays host to Daejeon Citizen versus FC Anyang in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season.
FC Anyang (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Daejeon Citizen's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daejeon Citizen lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Daejeon Citizen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 55% and FC Anyang 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 52% | FC Anyang 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.57 xG and FC Anyang 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.195 / defence 0.913 | FC Anyang attack 0.942 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.319. Data: 60 Daejeon Citizen games / 59 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 44% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 24%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | FC Anyang 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Daejeon Citizen 40% | FC Anyang 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Sep 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 44% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.57 / FC Anyang 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.195 / def 0.913 | FC Anyang attack 0.942 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Anyang xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang is scheduled to kick off at 10:30 on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 44% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
Record (5 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 2W | Draws 2 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (1.20) and FC Anyang's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.94x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.15
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.14
FC Anyang xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.14 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 27W 19D 19L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Anyang's form line: 22W 17D 26L from 65 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.28 for FC Anyang. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (13W 10D 9L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 11W 8D 13L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 65%.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
FC Anyang
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 27W 19D 19L in their last 65 games (1.54 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or FC Anyang away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
From 5 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 2, FC Anyang have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when FC Anyang 1-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 53%, FC Anyang 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Daejeon Citizen) and 50% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 66% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 50% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.