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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out FC Anyang 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat FC Anyang 2-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.07 xG and FC Anyang 0.91 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against FC Anyang attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 30%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights