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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Daegu FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Daegu FC 3-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.68 xG and Daegu FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Daegu FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 52% | Draw 24% | Daegu FC 24%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 48%, Daegu FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Daegu FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights